Risk, Surprise


Illustration: Watercolor and Micron pen sketch by Black Elephant Blog author

Illustration: Watercolor and Micron pen sketch by Black Elephant Blog author

Spectacular weather continues in this region making it a joyous time to be outdoors. Such is the beauty of the season that you do not need to go far away to enjoy it; this little lake is practically in my backyard.  As usual,  however, a natural scene can scarcely be captured by experts, let alone this relative novice, with paint and brush.

It was a dry rehearsal (albeit reliant on water) of sorts for a couple of outdoor group painting sessions this weekend. Would I remember all my “kit” with spare water, paper towels, and pencils?  Planning ahead well is part of the secret to this endeavor, I’ve learned.  Well, in this case, the pencils were completely missing: a whole bag of everything imaginable but not a pen or pencil in sight. Having gone to the trouble of setting up my stuff, I proceed here without the security of a sketch in pencil first.  Very few people went by, so there was no need to be worried about going totally awry.  About an hour later, I had this watercolor sketch (putting in a few accents with a Micron pen later).

Next up on this blog, some reactions to a new book about “super forecasters” and dragonfly eyes, and the varying abilities of experts and non-experts to anticipate future events.  It turns out that our abilities to “see” and “sense” play a big role–and dragonflies are uniquely adapted to carry out certain “sense-making” activities.


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